Retrospective - October to December Outlook

La Niña conditions were (correctly) predicted to redevelop in the tropical Pacific Ocean during October to December 2011. Mean sea level pressures were (correctly) projected to be above normal across much of New Zealand, with weaker westerly winds than normal prevailing for the period.

Predicted rainfall: Rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal in all regions.

Outcome: Rainfall was normal or below normal in eastern North Island, and the west and south of the South Island. Elsewhere, rainfall for the October–December period was above normal.

Predicted air temperature: Temperatures for October–December are likely to be average or above average in the North Island and northern South Island, and near average in the rest of the South Island.

Outcome: Temperatures we near or above average for the majority of the country. Localized eastern areas experienced below average temperatures for the 3-month period.