New Zealand’s equal-2nd warmest year on record. Annual temperatures were above average across the majority of New Zealand, including much of the North Island as well as the western and southern South Island. See complete 2018 Annual Climate Summary details.
During periods of northeasterly winds, the threat for sub-tropical low pressure systems capable of producing heavy rainfall, similar to those experienced in late June and mid-July, is elevated, particularly in the north and east of the North Island.
Rainfall is about equally likely to be near normal or below normal in the west of the South Island, about equally likely to be near normal or above normal in the east of the North Island, and most likely to be near normal in all other regions.
Oceanic ENSO-neutral conditions will very likely persist over the next three months. The long-standing climate drivers that have contributed to dryness over much of NZ are expected to influence our weather for at least the first half of the winter season.
Trade winds during April were slightly stronger than normal along the equator. This pattern is expected to continue over the next 1 2 months, most likely leading to continued cooling in the west central Pacific.
The weakening of the Southern Annular Mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole and the forecast for ENSO to remain neutral over the next three months indicate the absence of strong, persistent climate drivers for New Zealand.