Climate

Latest news

Hotspot Watch 9 April 2021

9 April 2021

Final Hotspot Watch update for this season. Weekly Hotspot Watches will return in the spring.

A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.

Hotspot Watch 12 March 2021

Hot spot

12 March 2021

Scientists watching lake on South Island glacier survey

Media Release

10 March 2021

Scientists undertaking the annual glacier snowline survey over the South Island later this month are keeping a watchful eye on a lake that has been forming and disappearing at the junction of the Tasman and Hochstetter glaciers.

Our work

Forecasting weather systems

NIWA’s research into forecasting weather systems aims to increase the resilience of New Zealand communities to weather-related hazards.

Our Future Climate New Zealand

Our Future Climate New Zealand is an interactive website that lets you to look at projections for a number of climate variables for New Zealand between now and 2100.

Seabed 2030

NIWA is leading a New Zealand partnership to map the South and West Pacific Ocean's seabed as part of a worldwide initiative to map the entire globe’s seafloor.

The Stormy Seas project

Does climate change affect the position of the Subtropical Front around New Zealand? This has important consequences for New Zealand's climate and biological productivity.

Latest videos

Glacier melt: A Time Capsule

Since 2016 enough ice has melted from the South Island’s Brewster Glacier to meet the drinking water needs of all New Zealanders for three years.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook: November 2020-April 2021

Tropical cyclone outlook Nov 2020 - Apr 2021

The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021. This seasonal outlook is for normal to below normal activity in terms of overall named cyclone systems in the region.

New Zealand 2019 climate summary

NIWA climate scientist Nava Fedaeff presents the NIWA annual climate summary for New Zealand 2019.

Handwriting recognition casts new light on climate change

Southern spring sizzle sets records

Media Release

20 October 2017

An immense dome of high pressure stretched across the Tasman Sea onto the South Island yesterday, bringing the highest temperatures across New Zealand since April.

Climate Summary for September 2017

A wet month for many and warm on the eastern coasts.

Seasonal climate outlook October 2017 - December 2017

Many atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the tropical Pacific are on the La Niña side of neutral, although not yet strong enough to reach La Niña thresholds.

Retrospective: June-August 2017 Outlook

The atmospheric circulation around New Zealand was forecast to favour more anticyclonic flows (high pressure) than normal to start the three month period of June – August 2017, bringing extended periods of settled weather.

Outlook: September – November 2017

September – November 2017 temperatures are forecast to be above average for all regions of New Zealand (55% to 65% chance for above average temperatures).

Global setting: August 2017

ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions were still present in the tropical Pacific during August 2017.

Current climate: August 2017

Overall, mean sea level pressure was lower than normal over and to the west of New Zealand during August while higher than normal mean sea level pressure occurred offshore to the east

Retrospective: May-July 2017 Outlook

During May-July, the atmospheric circulation around New Zealand was forecast to favour slightly more south-westerly flows than normal, but variable circulation regimes were to be expected over the course of the season.

Outlook: August - October 2017

August – October 2017 temperatures are forecast to be above average for all regions of New Zealand, with high confidence (55-70% chance for above average temperatures). Nevertheless, frosts and cold snaps will occur during the remainder of winter and in early spring. Coastal water temperatures around New Zealand are forecast to remain above average over the next three-month period.

Global setting: July 2017

ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) continued in the tropical Pacific during July 2017, but this month mixed signals were again present. In particular, some atmospheric patterns have been recently leaning more towards weak La Niña conditions.

Current climate: July 2017

July was a tumultuous month due to the passage of several active low pressure systems and consequently there were numerous high impact weather events throughout the month

Seasonal climate outlook: August 2017 - October 2017

ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) continued in the tropical Pacific during July 2017, but this month mixed signals were again present. In particular some atmospheric patterns have been recently leaning more towards weak La Niña conditions.

Winter storm delivers wettest day on record

Media Release

24 July 2017

The latest atmospheric river over New Zealand delivered one town’s wettest day on record, and broke several other long-held rainfall statistics, according to NIWA data.

So far, so stormy

Media Release

13 July 2017

Today’s low came spinning off the coast of Hawke’s Bay funneling strong winds through the Cook Strait and hitting Wellington region with strong winds before moving on to Taranaki and Auckland this afternoon.

Retrospective: April-June 2017 Outlook

During April-June, the atmospheric circulation around New Zealand was expected to favour higher pressure than normal to the west of the country, with more anticyclonic south-westerly wind flows than normal, a pattern suggestive of El Niño.

Outlook: July – September 2017

July – September 2017 temperatures are about equally likely to be above average (45% chance) or near average (40% chance) for the west and east of the North Island.

Global setting: June 2017

The tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during June 2017, but oceanic and atmospheric anomalies were mixed, with some indicators leaning towards El Niño and others towards La Niña.

Current climate: June 2017

Overall, mean sea level air pressures were higher than normal over and to the east, west, and south New Zealand during June.

Six months in a (slightly) cooler climate

5 July 2017

Now the first six months of the year are done and dusted, NIWA forecasters have been analysing the country’s weather statistics to see where we stand compared to last year’s record breaker.

A smidgen of seasonal solstice science

Media Release

19 June 2017

This year’s winter solstice may start mild, but by the end of the shortest day of the year on Wednesday there will be rain, wind and even some snow.

Retrospective: March-May 2017 Outlook

During March-May, the likely persistence of ENSO-neutral conditions and intermittently active periods in the Madden-Julian Oscillation, changeability in New Zealand’s weather patterns was expected to occur.

Outlook: June – August 2017

June – August 2017 temperatures are about equally likely to be above average (40% or 45% chance) or near average (40% chance) for all regions of New Zealand.

Global setting: May 2017

The tropical Pacific continued to exhibit an ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during May 2017, although is now close to the threshold of a weak El Niño.

Current climate: May 2017

May 2017 was characterised by mean sea level air pressures that were higher than normal over and to the southwest of New Zealand.

Technical note on revised January 1945 Hokitika Adjustment

In the 2010 NIWA Report on the seven-station temperature series (Mullan et al., 2010), two alternatives were offered for the adjustment at January 1945 between the records for Hokitika Town and Hokitika Southside. An offset of -0.52°C (a negative value meaning the new site is colder) was calculated by comparing the changes at Hokitika from 1935-1944 to 1945-1954 with those at four comparison sites. An offset of ‑0.68°C was calculated from a direct comparison between the two Hokitika records from the overlap of 30 months for August 1943 to January 1946.