Climate and weather

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A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent.
A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent.
A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent.
A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent.

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This research project aims to establish connections between weather and river flow forecasting, inundation prediction, and the associated risks to people and assets, using the RiskScape platform.

Latest videos

Why was 2021 New Zealand’s warmest year on record?

It's official, 2021 was Aotearoa New Zealand’s warmest year on record. The year 2021 finished with an average temperature of 13.56°C in New Zealand, this was 0.95°C above average (relative to the 1981-2010 baseline) and surpassed 2016 to become the country's new warmest year on record. Read more at Annual Climate Summary 2021.

2022-23 Summer Climate Summary from Ben Noll

2022-23 Summer Climate Summary from NIWA Meteorologist/Forecaster Ben Noll. See all the numbers and facts for New Zealand's wild summer weather

Tropical Cyclone Outlook: November 2021-April 2022

The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 9 to 12 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2021 and April 2022. The seasonal outlook is for normal to slightly above normal activity in terms of overall named TCs in the region.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook: November 2020-April 2021

The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021. This seasonal outlook is for normal to below normal activity in terms of overall named cyclone systems in the region. 

Improvements in data and climate science mean forecasters are able to predict patterns much further ahead and in far greater detail. Melissa Bray looks at what this may mean for farmers.
Forecasting sea surface temperatures several months in advance is challenging. To give us insights into what might happen around Aotearoa New Zealand in the months to come, NIWA scientists have combined predictions from eight different climate models from institutes around the world.
A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.
A soggy and exceptionally warm November
A wet & warm spring in the North Island; near normal South
The NINO3.4 Index anomaly (in the central equatorial Pacific) over the last month was 0.92˚C (climatology: 1991 2020), showing a cooling trend compared to October.
Coastal waters around Aotearoa New Zealand became unusually warm last month, say NIWA.
A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.
A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.
Forecasting sea surface temperatures several months in advance is challenging. To give us insights into what might happen around Aotearoa New Zealand in the months to come, NIWA scientists have combined predictions from eight different climate models from institutes around the world.
A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.
The NINO3.4 Index anomaly (in the central equatorial Pacific) over the last month was -0.80˚C (climatology: 1991-2020), in the La Niña range for the third consecutive month.
A mild and dry month for much of the country
A weekly update describing soil moisture patterns across the country to show where dry to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent. Regions experiencing significant soil moisture deficits are deemed “hotspots”. Persistent hotspot regions have the potential to develop into drought.
Temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average in the north of the North Island and the west of both islands. Above average warmth and periodic humidity is expected from November, a change from the relatively cooler conditions experienced during October.
Experts are warning Kiwis to be extra cautious this summer, with ultraviolet (UV) radiation levels averaging higher compared to 2021.
NIWA scientists are monitoring the potential for another marine heatwave in New Zealand’s coastal waters this coming summer.
The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 6 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2022 and April 2023. The seasonal outlook is for near normal activity in terms of overall named TCs in the region.
The NINO3.4 Index anomaly (in the central equatorial Pacific) over the last month (through 30 September) was -0.93˚C (climatology: 1991-2020). In the last four decades, only four Septembers hadcooler central equatorial Pacific SSTs than 2022, including September 2010, 1999, 1998, and 1988.
Wet for the eastern North Island, dry for the South Island
NIWA researchers are developing a physics-informed and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven method to vastly reduce the computer power needed to provide accurate climate change projections.
The development of updated national climate projections for Aotearoa New Zealand is underway and expected to be completed in 2024.
Temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average in the North Island and north and west of the South Island, and most likely to be warmer than average in the east of the South Island.
Students will explore possible adaptation options using the criteria of cost, ease, timeliness, and any limitations, including uncertainty.
Students will apply understanding gained from previous activities and will engage in the uncertainty of climate change and its implications.

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All staff working on this subject

Atmospheric Modeller
Emeritus Researcher – Atmospheric Radiation
Principal Scientist - Carbon Chemistry and Modelling
Principal Scientist - Atmosphere and Climate
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Principal Scientist - Research Software Engineering
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NWP/CFD Modeller and Analyst
Coastal and Estuarine Physical Processes Scientist
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Marine Physics Modeller
Principal Scientist - Marine Physics
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scientist
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Physical Oceanographer
Chief Scientist - Climate, Atmosphere and Hazards
Atmospheric Scientist
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Atmospheric Technician
Maori Organisational Development Manager
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Principal Technician - Climate and Risk Applications Developer
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