Climate

The weakening of the Southern Annular Mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole and the forecast for ENSO to remain neutral over the next three months indicate the absence of strong, persistent climate drivers for New Zealand.

Wet end to the year for much of New Zealand.

2019: New Zealand’s 4th-warmest year on record

Hottest November on record for New Zealand

Warmest recorded November closes 12th warmest Spring

Temperatures for the summer season are expected to be above average for New Zealand, apart from the west of the South Island where there are about equal chances for near average or above average temperatures.

Variable rainfall patterns; cool in the lower South Island.

NIWA and MetService analyses indicate 9 to 12 named tropical cyclones (TC) could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2019 and April 2020. This expectation for tropical cyclone activity is close to normal for the region, but with elevated activity east of the International Date Line especially during the late season between February and April.

Average temperatures overall with variable rainfall patterns.

For October to December, air pressure is forecast to be lower than normal in the New Zealand region, especially south of the country. This is expected to be associated with a westerly quarter air flow anomaly, particularly during November and December. Occasional easterly quarter winds are possible during October.