Climate

Warm start to winter for much of the country

Rainfall is about equally likely to be near normal or below normal in the west of the South Island, about equally likely to be near normal or above normal in the east of the North Island, and most likely to be near normal in all other regions.

Warm and dry for the middle to lower South Island

A dry autumn for most areas of the country.

During May the NINO3.4 Index anomaly (in the central Pacific) for May was +0.01˚C, with upper oceanic heat content continuing to decrease across the equatorial Pacific.

Oceanic ENSO-neutral conditions will very likely persist (71% chance) over the next three months. The long-standing climate drivers that have contributed to dryness over much of New Zealand are expected to influence our weather for at least the first half of the winter season. Air temperatures are most likely to be above average in the east of the South Island and about equally likely to be near average or above average in all other regions.

Trade winds during April were slightly stronger than normal along the equator. This pattern is expected to continue over the next 1 2 months, most likely leading to continued cooling in the west central Pacific.