Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook: Near-normal tropical cyclone activity overall during November-April, but increased east and reduced west of the Date Line; multiple severe tropical cyclones expected.
The consensus from international models is for the tropical Pacific to transition toward El Niño over the next three-month period (68% chance over October – December 2018). The probability for El Niño conditions being established remains high until autumn 2019, with a 71% chance for El Niño conditions over the April – June 2019 period.
A NIWA-led team has today been awarded a multi-million dollar research grant that will help drive major advances in understanding of New Zealand’s carbon emissions and uptake
ENSO-neutral conditions continued across the tropical Pacific during July 2018. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was in the neutral range, with a preliminary value of +0.2 for July 2018. Surface ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continued to warm during July but remained in the neutral range. The subsurface ocean remained warmer than average in the eastern equatorial Pacific during July, but anomalies weakened slightly compared to June.
El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions continued across the tropical Pacific during June 2018. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was slightly negative at about -0.7 during the past 30 days (on the El Niño side of neutral). The central equatorial Pacific experienced warming sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the third consecutive month and was slightly above average for the time of year.
ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in the tropical Pacific during May 2018. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was positive at about +0.3 during the past 30 days. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed for the second consecutive month and are now near or slightly above average for the time of year.
We've got hot temperatures, we've got cold temperatures, freezing temperatures, ice, snow, hail, rain - and even a few rays of sunshine. And one very confused weather pattern.
What happened in April, how our climate outlook for the previous three months turned out, global and local sea temperatures, and our outlook for May-July.
Massive increases in computing power are allowing NIWA scientists to not only analyse more data, faster, but also to envisage completely new experiments.
NIWA and Vanuatu's Meteorology and Geohazards Department have installed a network of fully automatic weather stations across Vanuatu. Data from the weather stations will help the country understand climate related risks such as extreme weather, flood prediction and drought.
Weak La Niña conditions continued in the tropical Pacific during March 2018, but trends in low-level winds and in sub-surface ocean temperatures during the month indicate that the event is coming to an end.
New Zealand is situated in the latitudes of prevailing westerlies and exposed coastal locations often experience strong winds, with generally lighter winds elsewhere.
Easter Sunday offers the best weather of the long holiday weekend, according to NIWA forecaster Maria Augutis - but the rest of the break isn’t looking too bad either.
