Seasons in Samoa

Penehuro Lefale

Is there a role for indigenous knowledge of weather and climate in improving scientific understanding of future changes in the climate?

Long before the advent of complex numerical climate models, indigenous communities have used changes in their environments to predict changes in the weather and climate. Social and communal activities like feasting, fishing and hunting patterns were planned in response to these changes and revolved around the different seasons.

While weather and climate patterns have been documented for many years using Western scientific techniques, little attention has been paid to documenting the traditional environmental observations made by indigenous peoples. Therefore it is possible

that scientists may be missing some valuable insights into climate change and prediction.

For example, recent research by NIWA aimed at documenting knowledge of weather and climate forecasting in Samoa found that Samoans have their own unique seasonal calendar (shown opposite). Unlike the European calendar, which is based on astronomical events, the Samoan calendar is based on observations of environmental change, which are in turn largely influenced by the onset of extreme weather and climate events. The next phase of our research is to investigate whether these indigenous observations and traditional knowledge could be used to help improve scientific under-standing of the climate system and its effects.

The scientific approach

We tend to assume that scientific problem-solving abilities are superior to those of indigenous knowledge. However, the issues facing scientists today in the area of resource and environmental management are becoming extremely complicated, often calling for more creative forms of collaboration between scientists and society and a broader range of disciplines and skills.

In research into climate change, for example, some of the most important tools being employed are climate models. These models have evolved considerably over the years and now include more detail than ever before. The outputs from various climate models are assessed by an international panel of scientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The climate projections in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report draw on the output from global climate models run for a range of plausible greenhouse gas scenarios. The scenarios used are the levels of greenhouse gases expected given a certain level of population change, socio-economic development, and technological change.

The best way to test a climate model is to run it for a period in the past using known greenhouse gas concentrations, and compare the output with past climate observations. This brings us to the importance of local observations, either in conventional data collection or in the documentation of indigenous knowledge and perspectives on weather, climate variability and change.

An indigenous perspective

Pacific Island Meteorological Services monitor and collect data from many parts of the southwest Pacific, continuing datasets that in some areas started over 100 years ago. For example, climate observations began in Apia, Samoa, in 1890. Long-term information like this is now assisting scientists in their understanding of past, present and future climate changes in the Pacific region. This includes the testing and validation of climate models.

Unfortunately, few parallel records have been kept of indigenous perspectives on weather and climate. However, NIWA now recognises the important role of local observations, knowledge and views. Samoa, with its long history of climate data collection combined with local knowledge on predicting weather and climate events, was the obvious place to start exploring these issues in the Pacific region as a whole. A project begun in March 2001 has documented the seasons from a Samoan perspective (below). Work is also underway with Māori regarding traditional weather and climate knowledge, and adaptation to climatic events.

Penehuro Fatu Lefale is based at NIWA in Auckland.