Three-month outlook

The outlook for June 2004 to August 2004

Below average mean sea level pressures are expected to the south of New Zealand, with slightly enhanced westerly quarter winds, during winter 2004.

Mean three-month sea surface temperatures around New Zealand are likely to be near the long-term winter average.

Temperatures are expected to be average or below average for the southern two-thirds of the South Island, and average elsewhere.

Rainfalls are expected to be near normal in most regions, but tending to below normal in the northern North Island. Normal winter soil moisture levels and streamflows are expected in all regions.

No El Niño or La Niña is expected through winter 2004.

 

A. Climate models give no strong signals about how the climate will evolve, so we assume that there is an equal chance (33%) of the climate occurring in the range of the upper, middle or lower third (tercile) of all previously observed conditions.

B. There is a relatively strong indication by the models (60% chance of occurrence) that conditions will be below average, but, given the variable nature of climate, the chance of average or above-average conditions is also shown (30% and 10% respectively).