Outlook: February-April 2018

February – April 2018 temperatures are forecast to be above average for all regions of New Zealand with high confidence (60 to 70% chance).

For February – April 2018, rainfall totals are forecast to be above normal in the North Island and in the north of the South Island (45 to 50% chance) and about equally likely to be near normal (35 to 40% chance) or above normal (35 to 40% chance) in the west and east of the South Island.

February – April 2018 soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast to be above normal (50% chance) in the north of the North Island, equally likely to be normal (40% chance) or below normal (40% chance) in the west of the South Island, and about equally likely to be normal (35 to 40% chance) or above normal (35 to 40% chance) for all remaining regions of New Zealand.

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, February-April.