Outlook: January-March 2018

January – March 2018 temperatures are forecast to be above average, with high confidence (65% to 70% chance) for all regions of New Zealand.  Coastal water temperatures around New Zealand and further offshore in the Tasman Sea are forecast to remain above average over the next three-month period.

January – March 2018 rainfall totals are most likely (45 to 50% chance) to be in the above normal range in the North Island and about equally likely to be near normal (35 to 40% chance) or above normal (35 to 40% chance) in the South Island.  

January – March 2018 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (45% chance) to be near normal in the north of the South Island. For all remaining regions of the country, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be in the below normal (35 to 45% chance) or near normal range (40 to 45% chance). 

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, January-March.