Outlook: October – December 2017

October – December 2017 temperatures are forecast to be above average for all regions of New Zealand (55% to 60% chance for above average temperatures). However, frosts and cool snaps could occur, especially early in the outlook period. Coastal water temperatures around New Zealand are forecast to remain above average over the next three-month period.

October – December 2017 rainfall totals are about equally likely to be normal (35% chance) or above normal (40% chance) for the north of the North Island, and most likely to be near normal (45% to 50% chance) for the remainder of the North Island and the north, west and south of the South Island. For the east of the South Island, rainfall is equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (40% chance).

October – December 2017 soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be normal (35-40% chance) or above normal (35-40% chance) for the north and west of the North Island. For the west of the South Island, soil moisture levels are most likely to be near normal (45% chance), whereas river flows are equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal (40% chance).  For all remaining regions, soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be near normal (40-45% chance).

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, October-December 2017.