Outlook: August - October 2017

August – October 2017 temperatures are forecast to be above average for all regions of New Zealand, with high confidence (55-70% chance for above average temperatures). Nevertheless, frosts and cold snaps will occur during the remainder of winter and in early spring. Coastal water temperatures around New Zealand are forecast to remain above average over the next three-month period.

August – October 2017 rainfall totals are most likely to be near normal (45% chance) for the east of the South Island, and about equally likely to be near normal (35-40% chance) or above normal (35-40% chance) for all remaining regions of New Zealand.

August – October 2017 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be near normal (40-45% chance) in the west of the North Island and the west and east of the South Island. In the north and east of the North Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (35-40% chance) or above normal (35-40% chance). In the north of the South Island, soil moisture levels are about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal (35% chance), and river flows most likely to be in the near normal range (45% chance). 

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, August-October 2017.
Research subject: Climate