Outlook: May – July 2017

May – July 2017 temperatures are equally likely to be above average (40% chance) or near average (40% chance) for the north and west of the North Island and the north of the South Island and most likely to be near average (45% chance) for the remaining regions of New Zealand. As we transition towards winter, frosts and cold snaps will occur from time to time in cooler locations, even in regions where elevated chance for higher than normal seasonal temperatures is forecast. In fact, the first half of May is expected to experience cold outbreaks, with below or well below normal temperatures for the time of year – this will be in stark contrast to what was observed during April.

May – July 2017 rainfall totals are most likely to be near normal (40-45% chance) in the north of the North Island and east of the South Island. Seasonal rainfall totals are about equally likely to be below normal (35-40% chance) or near normal (40% chance) for the west and east of the North Island and the north and west of the South Island.

May – July 2017 soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (35-40% chance) or above normal (35-40% chance) in the north of the North Island and the east of the South Island. In the west and east of the North Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be in the near normal range (40% chance). Soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35% chance) in the north of the South Island. In the west of the South Island, soil moisture levels are about equally likely to be below normal (45% chance) or near normal (40% chance) and river flows most likely to be in the below normal range (45% chance).

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, May-July 2017.