Outlook: March – May 2017

March – May 2017 temperatures are about equally likely to be average (40-45% chance) or above average (35-40% chance) in the north and east of both the North and South Island. In the west of both Islands, March – May 2017 temperatures are most likely to be near average (45-50% chance). As autumn progresses, frosts may occur from time to time in cooler locations.

March – May 2017 rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal (35-40% chance) or below normal (35-40% chance) in all regions of the country except the west of the South Island where near normal rainfall is most likely (45% chance).

March – May 2017 soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be normal (35% chance) or below normal (35-40% chance) in the North Island. In the South Island, below normal soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (50% chance) for the east and about equally likely (35% chance) to be normal or below normal in the north and west.

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, March - May 2017.