Outlook: February – April 2017

February – April 2017 temperatures are most likely (45-50% chance) to be near average for the north and west of the North Island and the east of the South Island. In the east of the North Island, February – April 2017 temperatures are about equally likely to be near average (45% chance) or above average (40% chance), and seasonal temperatures are about equally likely to be near average (40% chance) or below average (35% chance) in the north and west of the South Island.

February – April 2017 rainfall totals are most likely to be below normal (45% chance) in the north and east of the North Island, and equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (40% chance) in the west of the North Island. Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal (35% chance) for the west of the South Island. Near normal rainfall is most likely (40% chance) for the north and east of the South Island.

February – April 2017 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (55% chance) to be below normal for the north of the North Island and about equally likely to be normal (40% chance) or below normal (35-45% chance) for the east and west of the North Island. Near normal soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (40-35% chance) for all regions of the South Island.

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, February - April 2017.