Outlook: January – March 2017

January – March 2017 temperatures are about equally likely to be near average (40% chance) or above average (35-45% chance) for the north and east of the North Island and for the east of the South Island. Near average temperatures are most likely (40% chance) for the remainder of the country.

January – March 2017 rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (40-45% chance) for all North Island regions. Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35% chance) for the north of the South Island. Near normal rainfall is most likely (40% chance) for the east and west of the South Island.

January – March 2017 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (50% chance) to be below normal for the north of the North Island and about equally likely to be normal (40% chance) or below normal (45% chance) for the east and west of the North Island and east of the South Island. Near normal soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (45-50% chance) for the north and west of the South Island.

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, January - March 2017.