Retrospective: September-November 2016 Outlook

For September - November 2016, lower than normal pressure was forecast to the north-east of New Zealand while higher than normal pressure was expected to the south of the country. This airflow set-up was expected to produce more north-easterly winds than normal. Actual pressures were lower than normal over New Zealand as well as the Tasman Sea and south of Australia. This pressure set up produced more westerly quarter flows than normal. 

Predicted air temperature: September-November 2016 temperatures were likely to be above average in the north of the South Island and very likely to be above average in the remaining regions of the country.

Outcome: Actual seasonal temperatures were near normal in the north of the South Island as well as large parts of the Northland, Auckland, western Waikato, Wellington, Canterbury and Otago regions. Temperatures were above normal elsewhere.

Predicted rainfall: September-November 2016 rainfall totals were likely to be near normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island.  Seasonal rainfall was most likely to be in the near normal range in the west of the North Island and the north of the South Island. In the east and west of the South Island, rainfall was likely to be near normal or below normal.

Outcome: Actual rainfall was above normal in Kaipara, Auckland, Thames-Coromandel, Wellington, Tasman, Nelson and Dunedin. Rainfall was near normal elsewhere with the exception of coastal Tararua and coastal Central Hawke’s Bay districts where rainfall was below normal.