Outlook: December 2016 – February 2017

December 2016 – February 2017 temperatures are most likely to be near average (45% chance) for the west of the North Island and are about equally likely to be near average or above average (40-45% chance) for the remainder of the country.

December 2016 – February 2017 rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal or below normal (35-40% chance) for the east of the South Island and mostly likely to be near normal (45% chance) for the rest of New Zealand.    

December 2016 – February 2017 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be near normal (45-50% chance) for the north and east of the North Island, and equally likely (40% chance) to be near normal or above normal for the west of the North Island.  Near normal or above normal soil moisture and river flows are equally likely (40% chance) for the north of the South Island with near normal (45% chance) soil moisture and river flows the most likely outcome for the west of the South Island.  Near normal or below normal soil moisture and river flows are about equally likely (35-40% chance) for the east of the South Island.

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, December 2016 - February 2017.