Outlook: November 2016 – January 2017

November 2016 - January 2017 temperatures are most likely to be above average (50-55% chance) for all regions of New Zealand.

November 2016 - January 2017 rainfall totals are about equally likely to be above normal (40% chance) or near normal (35-40% chance) throughout the North Island. In the north and east of the South Island, rainfall is most likely to be near normal (40-50%), whereas rainfall in the west and south of the South Island is about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35% chance).

November 2016 - January 2017 soil moisture levels are most likely to be near normal (45% chance) in the north of the North Island, whereas river flows are equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal (40% chance).  In the remainder of the North Island, soil moisture and river flows are about equally likely to be above normal (40% chance) or near normal (35% chance). Near normal soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (45% chance) in the north of the South Island. For the rest of the South Island, soil moisture and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (35-40% chance) or below normal (35% chance).

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, November 2016 - January 2017.