Retrospective: July-September 2016 Outlook

For July – September 2016, weak anomalously high pressure was forecast to the north of New Zealand and expected to bring weak northerly quarter flow anomalies. Actual pressures were slightly lower than normal to the southwest of New Zealand and near normal over the country with no strong flow anomalies.  

Predicted air temperature July – September 2016 temperatures were very likely to be above average in all regions of the country.

Outcome: Actual seasonal temperatures were near normal for the much of the country. Slightly warmer than normal temperatures were recorded in eastern Northland, Thames-Coromandel, Central Otago and parts of Southland.

Predicted rainfall: July – September 2016 seasonal rainfall totals were about equally likely to be near normal or above normal for all regions of New Zealand.

Outcome: Actual rainfall was near normal for much of the North Island, with the exception of Auckland, Hawke’s Bay and part of the Bay of Plenty, where above normal rainfall was observed. In the South Island, below normal rainfall occurred in Marlborough as well as central and northern Canterbury. Rainfall was near normal for the remainder of the South Island.