Outlook: October-December 2016

October-December 2016 temperatures are most likely (50-55% chance) to be above average in the north of the South Island, east of the North Island and east of the South Island and very likely (60% chance) to be above average in the north and west of the North Island and the west of the South Island. Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand are forecast to remain near or above normal over the next three months.

October-December 2016 rainfall totals are about equally likely to be in the near normal range (40% chance) or above normal range (40-45% chance) in the North Island.  Seasonal rainfall totals are most likely (45% chance) to be in the near normal range in the north of the South Island. In the east and west of the South Island, rainfall for  October-December 2016 is about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35-40% chance).

October-December 2016 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be above normal (45% chance) in the east and west of the North Island and equally likely (40% chance) to be near normal or above normal in the north of the North Island. Seasonal soil moisture levels and river flows in the north of the South Island are most likely (40% chance) to be in the near normal range. Below normal soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (45% chance) for the west of the South Island. In the east of the South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be below normal (40% chance) or near normal (35% chance).

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, October-December 2016.