Outlook: May-July 2016

May – July 2016 temperatures are very likely to be above average (60-75% chance) in all regions of the country. Nevertheless, June and July are winter months, and frosts will occur from time to time in cooler locations.

May – July 2016 rainfall is likely to be above normal (50% chance) in the north of the North Island, likely to be near normal or above normal (40-45% chance) in the west of both islands and in Nelson-Marlborough, and likely to be in the near normal range (45% chance) in the east of both islands.

May – July 2016 soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be near normal or below normal (35-40% chance) in all North Island regions and in the east of the South Island. In the remainder of the South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be in the near normal range (40-45% chance).

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, May-July 2016.