Outlook: April-June 2016

April - June 2016 temperatures are most likely (50 to 60 % chance) to be above average for all regions of New Zealand. Nevertheless, as we reach into winter, frosts are likely to occur from time to time in cooler locations.

April – June 2016 rainfall is about equally likely to be in the below normal (35-40% chance) or near normal (35-40% chance) range in all regions of the North Island and the east of the South Island. Near normal rainfall is most likely (40% chance) in the north of the South Island. In the west of the South Island, seasonal rainfall totals are most likely to be above normal (45% chance).

April - June 2016 soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be in the below normal (35-45% chance) or normal range (40% chance) for the North Island. In the north of the South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (40-45% chance) to be in the near normal range. Seasonal soil moisture levels and river flows are both most likely (45% chance) to be below normal in the east of the South Island, and about equally likely to be normal (40% chance) or above normal (35% chance) in the west of the South Island.

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, April-June 2016.