Outlook: March - May 2016

March – May 2016 temperatures are forecast to be above average for all regions of the country. Nevertheless, as autumn progresses, frosts may occur from time to time in cooler locations. Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand are forecast to be above average, particularly to the west of the country.

March – May 2016 rainfall is forecast to be near normal for the north of the North Island and east of the South Island. Normal or below normal rainfall totals are likely for the west and east of the North Island, whereas normal or above normal is likely for the north and west of the South Island.

March – May 2016 soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast to be below normal or normal for all North Island regions and also for the east of the South Island. For the north of the South Island, soil moisture levels are forecast to be normal or above normal, and river flows near normal. Normal soil moisture levels and river flows are expected for the west of the South Island.

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, March-May 2016.