Outlook: February – April 2016

February - April 2016 temperatures are most likely (45% chance) to be above average for the north and west of the North Island.  Temperatures are about equally likely to be near average (35% chance) or above average (40% chance) for all remaining regions of the country.

February - April 2016 rainfall is about equally likely to be below normal (35-40% chance) or in the normal range (40% chance) for the north and east of the North Island and for the east of the South Island. Seasonal rainfall totals are most likely to be near normal (45% chance) for west of the North Island and for the north and west of the South Island.

February - April 2016 soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be below normal (35-45% chance) or in the normal range (40% chance) for the north and east of the North Island and for the east of the South Island. Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be near normal (45% chance) for west of the North Island and for the north and west of the South Island.

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, February-April 2016.