Outlook: January – March 2016

January - March 2016 temperatures are most likely (45% chance) to be above average for the east of the North Island.  Temperatures are about equally likely to be near average (35% chance) or above average (40% chance) for all remaining regions of the country.

January - March 2016 rainfall is most likely (45% chance) to be below normal for the north of the North Island. Seasonal rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal (35-40% chance) or below normal (35-40% chance) for the remaining regions of the North Island and the north and east of the South Island. January - March 2016 rainfall is most likely (45% chance) to be above normal for the west of the South Island.

January - March 2016 soil moisture levels are most likely to be in the below normal range (45-55% chance) for the north and east of both Islands. Soil moisture levels are equally likely to be normal (40% chance) or below normal (40% chance) in the west of the North Island. In the west of the South Island, soil moisture levels are about equally likely to be in the above normal range (40% chance) or normal range (35% chance).  

January - March 2016 river flows are most likely to be in the below normal range (45-50% chance) in the north of the North Island and the north and east of the South Island. River flows are equally likely to be in the normal range (40% chance) or below normal range (40% chance) for the west and east of the North Island. For the west of the South Island, river flows are about equally likely to be in the above normal range (40% chance) or normal range (35% chance).

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, January - March 2016.