Outlook: December 2015 – February 2016

December 2015 - February 2016 temperatures are most likely (45% chance) to be near average for the north and east of the North Island as well as the east of the South Island.  Temperatures are about equally likely to be near average (40% chance) or below average (40-45% chance) for all remaining regions of the country.

December 2015 - February 2016 rainfall is most likely (45%) to be below normal for the north and east of the North Island. Seasonal rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal (35-40% chance) or below normal (35-40% chance) for the west of the North Island as well as the north and east of the South Island.  Rainfall is equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal (40% chance) for the west of the South Island.

December 2015 - February 2015 soil moisture levels are about equally likely to be normal (35-40% chance) or below normal (40-45% chance) in all regions of the North Island as well as the east of the South Island. Above normal soil moisture levels are most likely (45% chance) for the west of the South Island and below normal soil moisture levels are most likely (45% chance) for the north of the South Island.

December 2015 - February 2015 river flows are about equally likely to be normal (40-45% chance) or below normal (40-45% chance) in the north and west of the North Island. Seasonal river flows are most likely to be below normal (45-50% chance) in the east of the North Island and the north and east of the south Island, and most likely (45% chance) to be above normal in the west of the South Island.​>

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, December 2015 - February 2016.