Outlook – November 2015 – January 2016

November 2015 - January 2016 temperatures are equally likely to be average (40% chance) or below average (40% chance) for the north and east of the North Island, and most likely to be near average (45% chance) for the east of the North Island and north of the South Island. Below average temperatures are most likely (45% chance) for the west and east of the South Island. 

November 2015 – January 2016 rainfall is most likely to be below normal (50% chance) in the north and east of the North Island, but equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal (40% chance) in the west of the South Island.  Near normal rainfall is the most likely outcome (45% chance) for the west of the North Island and north of the South Island.  There is low confidence in seasonal rainfall in coastal Canterbury and east Otago.

November 2015 - January 2016 soil moisture levels are most likely to below normal in the north of the North Island (55% chance) and in the east of the South Island (45% chance). Soil moisture levels are likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35-45% chance) in other regions, except for the west of the South Island where the outlook is for near normal (40% chance) or above normal (40% chance) soil moistures.

November 2015 - January 2016 river flows are most likely to be in the below normal range (45-50% chance) for the north and east of the North Island, as well as the north of the South Island.  River flows are about equally likely to be in the near normal (35-40% chance) or below normal (40% chance) ranges for the west of the North Island and east of the South Island. River flows are likely to be normal (35% chance) or above normal (35% chance) in the west of the South Island.

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities, Seasonal Climate Outlook, November 2015 - January 2016.