Outlook – September to November 2015

September – November 2015 temperatures are about equally likely (40-45% chance) to be average or below average for the North Island and in the north of the South Island.

Mean temperatures for the season as a whole are most likely (50% chance) to be in the below average range for the west and east of the South Island. Cold snaps and frosts are to be expected in some parts of the country from time to time.

September – November 2015 rainfall totals are most likely (45-50% chance) to be in the below normal range for the north and east of the North Island. Seasonal rainfall totals are about equally likely (35-40% chance) to be in the near normal or below normal range in the west of the North Island and the north and east of the South Island. Near normal rainfall is the most likely outcome (45% chance) for the west of South Island.

September – November 2015 soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (45-50% chance) to be below normal in the north and east of the North Island and the east of the South Island. In the western regions of both Islands, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely (35-40% chance) to be in the near normal or below normal range. In the north of the South Island, soil moisture levels are most likely (45% chance) to be below normal, and river flows are about equally likely (35-40% chance) to be in the near normal or below normal range.