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Retrospective – February to April 2015 Outlook

During February – April 2015, higher pressures than normal were forecast over and to the southeast of the country, and slightly lower than normal pressures were expected to the north of New Zealand. This atmospheric pressure pattern was expected to be associated with weak easterly flow anomalies

Actual pressures were slightly lower than normal over New Zealand and there was an absence of any significant flow anomalies.

Predicted rainfall: February – April 2015 rainfall is most likely to be in the near-normal range in the north of the North Island and the north and west of the South Island. Rainfall totals for the season as a whole are about equally likely to be near-normal or below normal in the east of the South Island. In the east and west of the North Island, the coming season’s rainfall is about equally likely to be near or above normal.

Outcome: Actual temperatures were near normal in the districts of Opotoki, Gisborne, Waitomo, Ruapehu, Ashburton, Timaru, Dunedin, Clutha and eastern Southland. Temperatures were above normal elsewhere. In particular, coastal parts of Westland, and Buller experienced temperatures 1°C above normal.

Predicted air temperature: February – April 2015 temperatures are most likely to be in the above normal range for all regions of New Zealand.

Outcome: Actual rainfall was near normal for the majority of the South Island and the west of the North Island. Rainfall was below normal for the east of the North Island as well as for the districts of the Far North, Kaipara, Whangarei, parts of Hurunui and Waimate. Pockets of above normal rainfall were recorded in South Taranaki, Wanganui, Rangitikei, Manawatu, Horowhenua and coastal Buller.

Weather station. [NIWA]

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