Retrospective – November 2014 to January 2015 Outlook

During November 2014–January 2015, weak anticyclonic anomalies were forecast to the west of the country leading to a weak southwesterly flow anomaly.

Actual mean sea level pressures for the forecast period were slightly higher than normal over northern New Zealand and were accompanied by a weak westerly quarter flow anomaly.

Predicted rainfall: Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be in the normal or below normal range in the north and east of the North Island.  Seasonal rainfall is most likely to be in the near normal range in all remaining regions of New Zealand.

Outcome: Actual rainfall was below normal for most of New Zealand with less than 50% of normal recorded in parts of Central Otago and Mackenzie districts. Normal rainfall was recorded west of the Divide as well as in the Far North, Kaipara and Whangarei

Predicted air temperature: Temperatures are forecast to be average or below average in the north and west of the North Island. Seasonal temperatures are most likely to be near average for the remaining regions.

Outcome: Actual temperatures were near average for the majority of the country. Isolated pockets of below normal temperature occurred in the districts of Waitomo, Gisborne, Hastings and Central Hawkes’s Bay. Conversely, small areas in Taupo, Masterton and Otago experienced above normal temperatures