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Retrospective – October to December 2014 Outlook

During October–December 2014, mean sea level pressures were expected to be lower than normal to the north as well as over most of the country. This pressure pattern was expected to be accompanied by a generally anomalous easterly flow and perturbed conditions

Actual mean sea level pressures for the forecast period were lower than normal to the south and east of the country and slightly higher than normal over the Tasman Sea. This resulted in a weak westerly quarter flow anomaly over much of the country.

Predicted rainfall: Rainfall is likely to be in the near normal range for the north and west of the North Island, and likely to be normal or below normal in the east of the North Island. Normal or above normal rainfall is likely in all South Island regions.

Outcome: Actual rainfall was below normal in parts of Waikato, Gisborne, Wairoa, Masterton, Carterton, South Wairarapa, Nelson, Marlborough and the east of the South Island. Pockets of above normal rainfall were recorded in western parts of the Far North, Buller, Westland and Southland. Near normal rainfall was recorded elsewhere.

Predicted air temperature: Temperatures are forecast to be average or above average for the east of the North Island, but are likely to be average or below average for the southwest and east of the South Island. Temperatures are likely to be near average for remaining regions of New Zealand.

Outcome: Actual temperatures were in fact near average for most of the country. Isolated pockets of below average temperatures (less than -0.5oC) were recorded in Otorohanga and Waitomo as well as coastal parts of Gisborne, Hastings, Central Hawkes Bay and Tararua.

Weather station. [NIWA]

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