Global Setting - November 2014
In November 2014, the equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed significantly, reaching El Niño levels towards the end of the month. Some – but importantly not all – atmospheric indicators also show patterns consistent with the development of a weak El Niño.
International guidance indicates that the chance for El Niño developing over the December 2014 – February 2015 period is about 75%. This figure has increased compared to forecasts issued last month.
During December 2014 – February 2015, lower pressures than normal are forecast over the New-Zealand region. This pressure pattern is expected to produce a weak southwesterly flow anomaly with perturbed conditions from time to time.
Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea surface temperatures for the coming three months are expected to be near average around the coasts of New Zealand.