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Retrospective - May to July Outlook

During May–July 2014, mean sea level pressures were expected to be slightly lower than normal over New Zealand with higher than normal pressures to the south-east and lower than normal pressures to the north of the country.

These pressure patterns were expected to be accompanied by mixed wind flows and perturbed conditions from time to time. Actual mean sea level pressures for the forecast period were below normal to the north-east and south-west of New Zealand with near normal pressures to the south-east of the country. This pressure pattern resulted in a north-westerly quarter flow anomaly over New Zealand.

Predicted air temperature:  Temperatures are most likely (50% chance) to be average for the west of the South Island, above average (50% chance) for the east of the North Island, and average or above average (40-45%) for all remaining regions of New Zealand. Cold snaps and frosts can still be expected in some parts of the country as autumn advances into winter.

Outcome: This forecast was well advised, with most of the country experiencing above average temperatures. Pockets of average temperatures were recorded in the districts of Kaipara, the Far North, Thames-Coromandel, Waitomo, Ruapehu, Wairoa and Central Hawkes Bay.

Predicted rainfall: Rainfall totals are equally likely (40% chance) to be normal or above normal in the east of the South Island, and most likely (40-50%) to be in the near-normal range for all remaining regions.

Outcome: Actual rainfall was much wetter than expected across the far north of the North Island and the south-western corner of the South Island during the forecast period. In contrast, rainfall was below normal in most eastern and western areas of the North Island, as well as many coastal areas of the eastern South Island. Near normal rainfall was observed across remaining areas of the country.

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