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Retrospective - March to May Outlook

During March–May 2014 mean sea level pressures were expected to be lower than normal to the north of New Zealand, with higher pressures than normal to the southeast of the country.

This circulation pattern was expected to be associated with anomalous north-easterly flows over the North Island and anomalous weak easterly flows over the South Island. Actual pressures anomalies were very weak over most of the country with slightly higher than normal pressures recorded to the southeast of New Zealand. This pattern resulted in a weak southeasterly flow anomaly. 

Predicted rainfall:  Rainfall is likely (40-45% chance) to be near normal or below normal for the north and west of the North Island, and for the north, west and south of the South Island. For the eastern regions of both Islands, three-month rainfall totals are most likely (50% chance) to be in the near normal range.

Outcome: In the North Island actual rainfall was below normal for Auckland and Northland, as well as parts of the Gisborne and Waitomo district. Above average rainfall was recorded in the Wellington Region with the remainder of the North Island experiencing average rainfall. Rainfall in the South Island was near normal along the West Coast as well as around Invercargill and Westland districts. Above average rainfall was recorded in all other areas with anomalies in excess of 200% recorded in eastern Canterbury and eastern Marlborough. 

Predicted air temperature: Temperatures are most likely (45-50% chance) to be near average for all regions of the country. As autumn progresses, cold snaps and frosts can be expected from time to time in some parts of the country.

Outcome: Actual temperatures for the forecast period were above average (anomalies above 0.5°C) for the majority of New Zealand. In the North Island, average temperatures were recorded in the region of Auckland and parts of Northland, Waikato, Hawkes Bay and eastern parts of the Wellington Region. In the South Island, normal temperatures were recorded in the Canterbury region as well as eastern Otago, eastern Nelson-Malrborough and Tasman Regions.  Above average temperatures were recorded for the remainder of the South Island with Buller and western Southland recording anomalies above 1°C. 

Weather station. [NIWA]

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