Retrospective - February to April Outlook

In the New Zealand region for February–April 2014, mean sea level pressures were expected to be near normal over New Zealand itself, but with lower pressures than usual to the north of the country and higher pressures than usual well to the east. This circulation pattern was expected to be associated with weak anomalous south-westerly flows over the South Island and easterly flows over the North Island.

Actual pressures anomalies were very weak over most of the country, and higher pressures than normal were recorded to the south and east of the New Zealand. This pattern resulted in weak easterly flow anomalies over most of the country.

Predicted rainfall:  rainfall totals are equally likely (40% chance) to be normal or above normal in the north of the North Island, equally likely (40% chance) to be normal or below normal in the north and west of the South Island, and most likely (40-50%) to be near normal for all remaining regions.

Outcome: Actual rainfall for the forecast period was less than expected across most regions of the North Island, with rainfall totals reaching less than 60% of normal in parts of Ruapehu, the Waitomo and New Plymouth as well as the Kaipara, Rodney and the extreme North of Gisborne. On the other hand, above normal rainfall (> 120% of normal) was recorded in the southeast of the North Island (South Wairarapa, Carterton and Masterton). In the South Island, rainfall was below normal in the southwest of the South Island (less than 80 % than normal), however the north and east of the South Island experienced mostly above normal rainfall, with totals exceeding two times the normal for Christchurch and the Banks Peninsula as well as the coastal regions of Hurunui and the Kaikoura 

Predicted air temperature: Temperatures are equally likely (40% chance) to be average or above average for all North Island regions, equally likely (40% chance) to be average or below average in the west of the South Island, and most likely (50% chance) to be near average in other South Island regions.

Outcome: Actual temperatures for the forecast period were above average (anomalies above 0.5°C) for most parts of the North Island, although isolated pockets of normal temperatures were recorded in the Far North as well as the coastal regions of Gisborne, Wairoa, Central Hawkes Bay and Tararua. In the South Island, warmer than normal temperatures were recorded in the southwest region as well as Buller, where well above normal temperatures (over 1.0°C above normal) were recorded locally. The north and east the South Island experienced mostly average temperatures (anomalies in the range -0.5°C to +0.5°C).