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Global Setting – April 2014

ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) continued in the equatorial Pacific Ocean in April 2014. However, above normal sea surface temperatures along the equator now cover a significant part of the central and far eastern Pacific; and these warm anomalies are consistent with developing El Niño conditions.

International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for May-July 2014, although following this period El Niño appears increasingly likely with 11 of the 14 models monitored by NIWA predicting El Niño conditions over August-October 2014.

During May–July 2014, mean sea level pressures are expected to be slightly lower than normal over New Zealand with higher than normal pressures to the south-east and lower than normal pressures to the north of the country. These pressure patterns are expected to be accompanied by mixed wind flows and perturbed conditions from time to time. 

Sea Surface Temepratures 

Sea surface temperatures are expected to be near average for the coming three months around New Zealand.

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 13th of April 2014 to 10th of May 2014. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: April SOI +1.0; February to April average -0.3.
Differences from normal April surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

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