Outlook - April to June 2014
April–June temperatures are forecast to be average or below average for the north and west of both Islands. Average temperatures are most likely for the east of the North Island and the east of the South Island. Cold snaps and frosts can be expected in some parts of the country as autumn progresses.
April–June rainfall is likely to be near normal or below normal for the north and west of the North Island and north and west of the South Island. For the eastern regions of both Islands, rainfall is most likely to be in the near-normal range.
Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be in the below normal range for the north of the North Island and the west of the South Island. Near normal or below normal soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast for the remaining regions of New Zealand.
For the remainder of the tropical cyclone season (through the end of April), the risk of an Ex-Tropical Cyclone (ETC) approaching New Zealand is expected to be close to normal. Based on the long-term record, ETCs come within 550km of New Zealand for 9 out of every 10 years. While the most common time when these storm systems approach New Zealand typically occurs during February-March, late season ETCs have occurred in the past and cannot be ruled out.