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Global Setting – March 2014

The equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in a neutral ENSO-state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in March 2014. While the Pacific east of the Dateline remains slightly cooler than normal, warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures have appeared off the South American near the Equator.

Subsurface measurements show the Ocean is storing a large amount of anomalous heat at depth. International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for April-June 2014, however in the following season the probability of El Niño increases to about 50% chance.

During April–June 2014, mean sea level pressures are expected to be higher than normal to the south and east of the country, with lower pressures than normal to the north of New Zealand. These anomalies are expected to be accompanied by weak easterly flow anomalies and perturbed conditions from time to time. 

Sea Surface Temepratures 

Sea surface temperatures are expected to be near average for the coming three months around New Zealand. 

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 2nd of March 2014 to 29th of March 2014. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: March SOI -1.7; January to March average -0.2.
Differences from normal March surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

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