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Global setting – February 2014

10 February 2014

The equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in a neutral ENSO-state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in February 2014.

Colder than normal sea surface temperatures appeared in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but at 150m sub-surface depths an extensive region of warmer than normal water developed during the month. International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for autumn, but in the following winter season about half the international models develop El Niño or borderline El Niño conditions.  

During March–May 2014, mean sea level pressures are expected to be lower than normal to the north of the country, with higher pressures than normal to the southeast of New Zealand. This circulation pattern is likely to be associated with anomalous north-easterly flows over the North Island and anomalous weak easterly flows over the South Island.

Sea surface temepratures

Sea surface temperatures are expected to be near average for the coming three months around New Zealand.  

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 2nd of February 2014 to 1st of March 2014. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: February SOI -0.3; December to February average +0.3. [NIWA]
Differences from normal February surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

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