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Outlook - January to March 2014

Lower pressures than normal are forecast in the Tasman Sea, and over and north of New Zealand, while anticyclonic conditions are forecast to the southeast of the country.

This circulation pattern is expected to be associated with a weak anomalous flow from the northeasterly quarter. 

January-March rainfall is forecast to be equally likely (40% chance) to be normal or above normal in the north of the North Island, and normal or below normal in Nelson-Marlborough. In all other regions, the 3-month rainfall totals are most likely (45-50% chance) to be in the near normal category. 

January-March temperatures are most likely (50% chance) to be above average for North Island regions, and equally likely (40% chance) to be average or above average for South Island regions. 

Soil moisture levels are most likely (40-45% chance) to be near normal in all regions, except for Nelson/Marlborough where below normal soil moisture is most likely (45% chance). River flows for the January-March 2014 period are most likely (45% chance) to be near normal in all regions, except for Nelson/Marlborough where river flows are equally likely (40% chance) to be normal or below normal.

For the tropical cyclone season (November – April), the risk of an ex-Tropical Cyclone (ETC) approaching New Zealand is expected to be close to normal. Based on the long-term record, ETCs come within 550km of New Zealand for 9 out of every 10 years (averaging close to one event per year). These systems typically occur during the latter part of the TC season (February–April). For ENSO-neutral years, ETCs are twice as likely to pass to the east of Auckland as to the west of the city. 

[NIWA]

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