Global Setting – December 2013
The equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in December 2013.
International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral conditions are very likely to persist for the next three months (January – March 2014). These ENSO-neutral conditions are also forecast to continue throughout the autumn and early winter, but El Niño development becomes increasingly likely by mid-year, reaching approximately 50 percent chance along with ENSO-neutral for July-October 2014.
In the New Zealand region, lower than normal pressures are forecast in the Tasman Sea, and over and north of New Zealand, while higher than normal pressures conditions are forecast to the southeast of the country. This circulation pattern is expected to be associated with a weak anomalous flow from the north-easterly quarter.
Sea surface temperatures
Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand are expected to remain above average around the whole of New Zealand for the coming three months.