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Global Setting – December 2013

The equatorial Pacific Ocean continued in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in December 2013.

International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral conditions are very likely to persist for the next three months (January – March 2014). These ENSO-neutral conditions are also forecast to continue throughout the autumn and early winter, but El Niño development becomes increasingly likely by mid-year, reaching approximately 50 percent chance along with ENSO-neutral for July-October 2014.

In the New Zealand region, lower than normal pressures are forecast in the Tasman Sea, and over and north of New Zealand, while higher than normal pressures conditions are forecast to the southeast of the country. This circulation pattern is expected to be associated with a weak anomalous flow from the north-easterly quarter.

Sea surface temperatures

Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand are expected to remain above average around the whole of New Zealand for the coming three months.

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 8th of December 2013 to 6th of January 2014. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: December SOI -0.1; October to December average +0.1.
Differences from normal December surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

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