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Global Setting – November 2013

2 March 2014

The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in November 2013.

International guidance indicates that ENSO-neutral conditions are very likely to persist for the next three months (December 2013 – February 2014). These ENSO-Neutral conditions are forecast to continue throughout the summer and early autumn, but El Niño development becomes increasingly likely as we approach winter, reaching approximately 50/50 percent chance along with ENSO neutral from May-July 2014.

In the New Zealand region, lower pressures than normal are forecast to the north of the country in the western Pacific, while anticyclonic conditions are forecast over the south and to the east of the country. This circulation pattern is expected to be associated with slightly less westerly and southwesterly airflow than usual over the summer

Sea surface temperatures

Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average around the whole of New Zealand for the coming three months.

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 3rd of November to 30th November 2013. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: November SOI +0.8; September to November average +0.3.
Differences from normal November surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

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