The equatorial Pacific Ocean remains in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña). International guidance indicates that these neutral conditions are likely to persist for at least the coming three months (July–September). For the New Zealand region, higher pressures than normal are forecast south of the country, with slightly lower pressures than normal in the north Tasman Sea. This circulation pattern is likely to produce a weak easterly flow anomaly over the country.
Sea Surface Temperature
Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand's coasts are likely to be above the climatological average for the coming three months near the coast and to the east and south of the country, with conditions near average further to the west in the Tasman Sea.
Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 2nd of June to 29th of June 2013. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: June SOI +1.4; April to June average +0.7.