Outlook - April to June 2013

In the New Zealand region higher pressures are likely to prevail over and to the south of the South Island during the period April to June. Temperatures from April to June are likely to be above average across the country. Rainfall for the April – June period as a whole is likely to be in the near normal range. For this tropical cyclone season (November – April), the risk of an ex-Tropical Cyclone approaching New Zealand is expected to be near normal. On average, one ex-Tropical Cyclone nears New Zealand during the season. 

Rainfall for the April – June period as a whole is likely to be in the near normal range for all regions. Soil moisture levels are likely to be below normal for the north of the North Island for the April–June period, and normal or below normal for the remainder of the country. River flows are likely to be below normal for the North Island and the north of the South Island, and normal to below normal elsewhere.

Late autumn (April–June) temperatures are likely to be above average across the North Island, and are very likely to be above average across the South Island. 

Because of the existing soil moisture deficits across the North Island and in the eastern South Island, soil moisture levels and river flows are expected to take some time to recover in these areas.

For this tropical cyclone season (November–April), the risk of an ex-Tropical Cyclone approaching New Zealand remains near normal. On average, one ex-Tropical Cyclone nears New Zealand during the season.