The ocean – atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific is currently in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) and the global forecast models indicate that these conditions are highly likely to persist into the autumn. In the New Zealand region, slightly higher than normal pressures are expected to the south of the country and southeast of the Chatham Islands, with weak anomalous flow from the north-easterly quarter over New Zealand.
Sea Surface Temperature
Sea surface temperatures are expected to be near average around New Zealand.
Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 6th of January to 2nd of February 2013. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: January SOI -0.1; November to January average -0.2.
Differences from normal January surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.