Retrospective - October to December Outlook

The equatorial Pacific Ocean reflects ENSO-neutral conditions. The above normal sea surface temepratures of November 2012 eased further in December. 

Predicted rainfall: Rainfall is likely to be above normal or near normal in the north and west of the North Island as well as in Nelson-Marlborough, and near normal elsewhere.

Outcome: Above normal rainfall fell over much of the North Island apart from parts of Northland, Waikato, the Gisborne Region, the south coast of Hawkes Bay and the Kapiti coast where normal rainfall was observed. For the South Island above normal rainfall fell in the Tasman Region, Nelson, Marlborough and South Canterbury. Below normal rainfall was recorded in the south west of the South Island, east coast Southland and the Otago Peninsula. Normal rainfall fell elsewhere.

Predicted air temperature: Air temperatures are likely to be near average or above average in all regions for the season as a whole.

Outcome: Temperatures were cooler than forecast with normal to below normal temperatures recorded across the country. The North Island experienced below normal temperatures in Northland, the Waikato Region and coastal Taranaki. Normal temperatures were observed elsewhere. In the South Island normal temperatures were recorded in the Tasman Region, Nelson, Marlborough, North Canterbury, Banks Peninsula, coastal Otago and western parts of Southland. Below normal temperatures were experienced elsewhere.