Outlook - January to March 2013

ENSO-neutral conditions are very likely to persist into the Southern Hemisphere autumn. For the January-March period, lower than normal pressures are expected in the south Tasman and to the southeast of the Chatham Islands, with enhanced south-westerly winds over New Zealand. January-March temperatures are likely to be near average or below average in the west of the North Island, and near average in all other regions. January-March rainfall is likely to be near normal or above normal in west and south of the South Island, near normal or below normal in the east of the North Island, and near normal for remaining regions. 

January-March rainfall is likely to be near normal or above normal in west and south of the South Island, but near normal or below normal in the east of the North Island. Near normal rainfall is likely for other regions. 

Late-summer soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be below normal or normal in the east of the North Island, and near normal in all other regions of New Zealand. 

January-March temperatures are likely to be near average or below average in the west of the North Island, and near average in all other regions.

For this tropical cyclone season (November – April), the risk of an ex-Tropical Cyclone approaching New Zealand is expected to be near normal. On average, one ex-Tropical Cyclone nears New Zealand each year.