Oceanic indicators in the west and central tropical Pacific remain close to El Niño thresholds, but the atmosphere has yet to show any significant response to the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures. The global forecast models indicate an approximately 50:50 chance of neutral versus weak El Niño conditions over the next three months. In the New Zealand region, lower than normal pressures are expected southeast of the Chatham Islands, with weakly enhanced south-westerly winds over New Zealand.
Sea surface temperatures
Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain near average around New Zealand.
Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 30th September to 27th October 2012. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: October SOI +0.1; August to October average -0.1.
Differences from normal October surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.