Retrospective - May to July Outlook

Neutral conditions were expected to prevail (neither La Niña nor El Niño), as was indeed the case. Near New Zealand, lower than normal pressures were predicted to the north of the country, with higher than normal pressures over southern New Zealand. This pressure pattern was well forecast; pressures over the north Tasman Sea were below seasonal normal, but pressures across the lower North Island, the entire South Island, and extending across to the Chatham Islands were much higher than usual.

Predicted rainfall: Rainfall totals are likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and near normal in other regions.

Outcome: Above normal rainfall was observed over parts of the Coromandel, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, the Tasman District and Nelson. Below normal rainfall was experienced over most of Northland, Inland Bay of Plenty, East Cape, Coastal North Canterbury, parts of south and central South Canterbury, Coastal Southland and parts of the Westcoast. Normal rainfall observations were recorded elsewhere.

Predicted air temperature: Temperatures are likely to be average or above average over most of the country, except for near average in the east of the South Island. Despite the overall pattern of near or above average temperatures, frosts typical of winter will occur from time to time.

Outcome: Temperatures were above average for central Northland as well as Westport and parts of Southland. Below average temperatures were recorded at Cape Reinga, Warkworth, over the Gisborne Region, much of the Waikato Region, souther Hawkes Bay, southern Manawatu, the entire Wellington Region, parts of Central and South Canterbury and parts of the Otago Region.