Conditions in the tropical Pacific are currently on the brink of El Niño, and it is likely El Niño will develop during the early spring period. In the New Zealand region, however, lower pressures to the north of the country, and higher pressures to the south of New Zealand, are still likely to dominate for the August-October period.
Sea surface temperatures
Sea temperatures around New Zealand are likely to be near normal for the season as a whole.
Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 1st July to 28th July 2012. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: July SOI -0.2; May to July average -0.6.